The Coming Internet Traffic Jam

Adapted from an article by Phil Kerpen, policy director for Americans for Prosperity.

A Washington investment think tank, Deloitte & Touche, is predicting that the world’s Internet traffic will exceed capacity THIS YEAR, and will slow to a crawl, like an L. A. traffic jam.

Why? First, there is a rapid growth in the number of global Internet users. Second, there is a significant rise of online video services. Third, there is a decided lack of investment in new infrastructure (you know, the ‘pipes” that the internet runs on? – grin).

PROBLEM NO. 1 – NETWORK NEUTRALITY Robert Kahn and David Farber, are known as the father and grandfather of the Internet. Both of these gentlemen have been vocally critical of Network Neutrality mandates. Kahn maintains that to help innovation, Network Operators need to develop new technologies on their own networks, something that Network Neutrality mandates prevent. Farber wants Congress NOT to enact Network Neutrality mandates, preventing improvements to the Internet. (NN mandates is designed to protect existing infrastructures and the profits of the companies which own them.)

PROBLEM NO. 2 – HEAVY TRAFFIC Millions of videos are flooding the Internet, and are driven by Web 2.0 advances which currently bring low prices to consumers (because of dot-com overbuilding, creating massive overcapacity) making bandwidth cheap and abundant. But now that bandwidth is all being consumed.

(The think tank report maintains that) Network Operators need to prioritize traffic, creating Service Tiers, and they will have to use revenue from content providers in the premium Tiers to pay for new infrastructure. In other words, it is going to cost you, and probably much sooner than you might think, to buy the same bandwidth you are using now.

Many vested interests (the Internet Providers) denounce this solution of Internet Fast Lanes and Slow Lanes. But as the Deloitte report shows, it is very likely that there will be only Slow Lanes, and even very Slow Lanes later this year.

(This may well become known as the Information Super Highway Traffic Jam of 2007.)

PROBLEM NO. 3 – NO NEW GROWTH Without billion dollar investments to upgrade the Internet’s Infrastructure, download speeds will come to a standstill. This is not a good thing, if Network Neutrality proponents manage to save the existing Internet by freezing innovation and new infrastructure, whose investments enable next generation technologies to be created.

Advanced networks cost billions of dollars to deploy and need to generate revenue to stay in business. The current infrastructure companies are adament that offering premium services with guaranteed bandwidth is necessary for them to recoup their investments. But soon they will not have the bandwidth to do this.

Quality-of-service issues will require TIERS because with finite bandwidth, people don’t want to buy services like video and voice, if these can be trashed by free YouTube and peer-to-peer networks.

Craig Moffett of Bernstein Research told Congress last year that any Telecom Company that made infrastructure investments under Network Neutrality would see its stock fall. Moffett estimated that the bandwidth for any TV viewer would cost carriers $112 per month. The High-Definition TV viewer would cost them $560. Unless the YouTubes and Joosts pay a share of those costs, such investments won’t happen.

If Network Neutrality proponents have their way the Internet will soon be frozen shut, an information superhighway with Los Angeles-like traffic delays.

(You can imagine what will happen to popular services like Apple’s iTunes music and video downloads, if all this takes place later this year.)

I don’t necessarily agree with this article that Network Neutrality is the sole cause of this problem. We users have a lot to do with it.

Are you willing to give up big downloads? Do you think it is better to send people emails with links instead of attachments? Are you going to be willing to pay a lot more for your Internet? Will you be willing to pay for services you are now getting for free?

What do you think should be done about this, if anything?

Let us know, here in the Comments.

Regards,
Roger Born
“Never squat with your spurs on.”

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