The feedback I’ve received overnight regarding my summation yesterday on Apple’s permanent withdrawal from Macworld Expo has included more than one person who praised me for sticking to the feasible and not even getting into the conspiracy theory stuff about how this is all somehow related to Steve Jobs’ health. But I have to admit that the reason my initial response to the expo news didn’t include anything about Steve’s health is that the subject didn’t even cross my mind when I heard the news. Why would it? And yet this morning, as I was wondering to myself just what kind of delusional mind would conclude that it did actually have something to do with Steve’s health, I came across this gem which states that a major Wall Street analyst firm is downgrading Apple’s stock today because it thinks yesterday’s announcement raises questions about Steve’s health.
Holy. Crap. At least that provides an answer to my “what kind of delusional mind” question. But because a serious firm is making a serious statement like this, there are plenty of folks out there who will now automatically take it seriously. Which means that I now feel compelled to comment this sheer utter lunacy after all, even though I was hoping not to have to waste words on it.
The theory goes like this: Steve Jobs is secretly dying of cancer and Apple is desperate to keep it covered up for as long as possible. The people who buy into this theory are basing it on essentially nothing more than the fact that Steve did have pancreatic cancer a few years ago and was lucky enough to have the rare form of pancreatic cancer that isn’t terminal. Now, if Steve looks like he’s lost some weight, according to these folks it’s because he’s got cancer again. If he declines to make a public appearance, it’s because he’s got cancer again. If he sneezes he’s got cancer again. And for whatever reason, the people who believe in this theory seem to believe in it so deeply that every time Apple does anything these days, these people try to make the facts somehow fit their theory.
This time the theory is apparently that Steve is wasting away in seclusion and is now so frail that he can no longer make public appearances, and so as part of a massive conspiracy to cover this up, Apple is not only sending Phil Schiller to deliver this year’s Macworld Expo keynote, but also completely pulling out of Macworld Expo forever. But here’s the thing: if anything, I think this announcement actually contradicts the whole “Steve is sick” conspiracy and should put it to bed once and for all.
Think about it. If Steve really is terminally ill, then Apple’s board of directors already knows it, and he and the board have doubtless already identified the next CEO of Apple. Which would probably be Phil Schiller. From everything I’ve heard about him, he understands Steve’s vision for Apple about as well as Steve does, he gets the products, he’s a solid businessman, a tough negotiator, and a logical successor. But if there’s one thing Phil Schiller is not, it’s a strong public speaker. And we have years of streaming video to prove it. When he tries to bring the energy he comes off as phony, and when he tries to act cool he’s just boring. Phil is the guy you send out to do the keynote when there’s nothing new to announce anyway (hint, hint) and someone has to take one for the team. And if Phil is as smart as he’s supposed to be, then he knows this about himself. So if he were about to take over Apple’s operations, one of the first things he’d do is to start figuring out who at Apple would be taking over the actual product introduction duties. Jonathan Ive comes to mind.
But the bottom line is that if Steve really were dying and Schiller really were about to take over the company, the upcoming keynote would likely be used as a testing ground for whoever the braintrust saw as the most likely candidate to take over those duties. Why would Schiller waste the opportunity on himself, if he knew that he needed to quickly find someone within Apple who could handle product introductions, put that person through a real-world test, and get that person on-the-job experience all in one shot? Set aside the ridiculousness of the idea that Apple would permanently bail out of doing a booth at Macworld Expo as some kind of bizarrely overproduced smokescreen to cover up Steve’s supposed health issues; just consider the fact that Phil Schiller is handling this keynote himself, and that should give you ample evidence that no one within Apple is worrying too much about grooming a new product introducer any time soon.
The truly aggravating thing about these wild conspiracy theories people come up with is that they’re often so absurd that you initially don’t want to dignify them with a response, and even when you do come out and deny them (as Apple eventually did), the fact that the denial is exactly what you’d say if you were trying to cover something up only manages to add more fuel to the conspiracy fire. From where I’m sitting, this one has gotten as ridiculous as the whole “Elvis is still alive and driving a bus in Tucson” theory.
And yet somehow Wall Street has fallen for it today. I feel dirty even writing about such nonsense in the name of trying to quash it. Doubtless, the die-hard conspiracy theorists will read what I’ve written and somehow come away even more convinced that they’re right. But I hope that the rest of you, who are hearing this nonsense third-hand and wondering what to make of it, will realize that the whole thing is little more than evidence that some really bored individuals (including at least one Wall Street analyst) have way too much time on their hands.
Steve Jobs really can’t win at this point. If he reveals the name of his eventual successor just to get the Wall Street goons off his back, conspiracy theorists will merely use it as more evidence that he’s supposedly dying. And if he decides to make an arbitrary public appearance (say, a TV interview) to prove that he’s alive and well, those same people will pick apart the video frame by frame and still somehow conclude that it’s yet more evidence that he’s not well. I’m starting to think this health conspiracy nonsense is going to follow him around for the rest of his professional life, even if he remains in charge at Apple for decades to come. That’s unfortunate, and a little disturbing.
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