John Markoff wrote something interesting recently. He claims the major computer battle has shifted, not for computers or music players, but it has all zeroed-in on “the 4th screen.”
He means by to say that there are four screens in our history and future: The movie screen, the television screen, the computer screen, and something new ~ the screen of the be-all and do-all device in your pocket.
We over here at MyMac have been calling this evolution “Convergence.” I believe that the computer is essentially following the historical model of the automobile, the radio, and, in fact all of the major inventions since the rise of the Industrial Age.
Someone invents something in their garage, and begins to build an industry around it. Other someones jump on the idea and soon there are several hundred competitors, each with their own idea of how it should work.
Soon a set of standards arises from competition, which is good for the buying public because all the new products work the same way.
But in the process, there suddenly is only a small handful of successful competitors, while the others fade away or are bought out.
Then follows decades of incremental improvement, where the remaining competitors essentially copy each other. And the buying public also grows, to where the new invention becomes an essential part of the fabric of civilization. History shows this is almost always true, with the car, the phone, with radios and televisions, and with the personal computer.
But what does this have to do with tomorrow’s Keynote?
Take another look at Apple’s home page, at the graphic prominently < href="http://apple.com">displayed.
In my opinion, Apple is going to move in a completely new direction, rather than with an incrementally improved computer: A Mac and/or an iPod.
What if thousands of sealed crates have been arriving at all the Apple Stores since last night?
What if Steve Jobs likes this new thing a whole lot better than the Mac and is spending all his time and his company’s resources on it, and has not been afraid to say so?
What if the one more thing that Steve shows in the morning is unlike anything Apple has ever done before, and it takes the whole market in a new direction?
Our Publisher, Tim Robertson is at the years Macworld right now. I think he picked the perfect year to go.
Regards,
Roger Born
“Always drink upstream from the herd”
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