Fear of an iPhone world

Question: Why do people prefer Handguns to Tech Analysts?
Answer: You can buy a silencer for a handgun.

OK, all jokes aside now. AT & T released its quarterly statement yesterday and the nugget that had everyone in a tizzy was that there were only 146,000 iPhone activations for the quarter. Apple’s stock lost 6% on the news sliding under $135. The real story will be later today when after the Stock Markets in the US close and Apple releases its own quarterly statement. No doubt many will be waiting with their breaths held on how many iPhones Apple will claim to have sold during the third quarter. We won’t know the actual number of total sales unless Apple or AT & T tells us.

No matter what is actually announced, let’s look at the numbers known so far. The only number that matters as of yet is the AT & T number of activations. As I said, 146.000. Remember that this number is the total number of activations for the iPhone for the third quarter which ended June 30th. When was the iPhone first available for sale? June 29th after 6PM. In a nutshell, this means that Apple and AT & T had about 30 hours to sell this device before the door dropped on the quarter. Add in the problems that AT & T had with iPhone activations (this is well documented elsewhere, so I won’t bother going into a rant) at the beginning of selling the device.

Of course all kinds of numbers have been thrown out (none officially from Apple or AT & T) from 250,000 to over a million. I ask everyone reading this (both of you), does it really matter? The number that should be compared is how many other smartphones sold this many at launch in the same amount of time? Also throw in that it is only being sold by one carrier and (yes, we can admit it here) it is not a cheap device. $500-600 for a phone is not a trivial amount. I can’t and won’t speak for everyone else, but I’m a working man and that much money for a phone isn’t something I would take lightly.

The problem is somewhat multi-faceted. The amount of hype generated before the iPhone was released (very little of it actually coming from Apple or AT & T) plus the numbers of people that dislike anything made from Apple (for whatever reason, I stopped trying to figure out their justifications some time ago), and the amount of fear (yes fear) from other cell phone makers and competing mobile networks meant that many will grasp at whatever straws they could find to slam the device.

So what are they afraid of? Are they afraid that the iPod (the acknowledged leader in digital content players) was not a fluke? That Apple in a short amount of time will take over the market? That they will now be forced to actually spend money to improve their cell phone interfaces to the point where a normal person of average intelligence can actually USE the gosh wow features they like to point out in their advertising? Yes to all of that. For those that listen to the MyMac podcast, Tim, Chad, and I have bandied these about (You DO listen to the podcast right?) and have mostly come to same conclusion.

Their fears are mostly unjustified. Apple isn’t going to take over the cell phone market. It’s a market that is too broad and too diverse for Apple to make more than a dent, especially with high priced items like the iPhone. As far as them having to redo their cell phone’s UI to make them easier to use, can anyone tell me why this would be a bad thing?

For the record, I do not, nor am I planning to, own an iPhone. For me, it’s too expensive for a cell phone and its storage is too small to make a good iPod with video capability.